Assessing the economic effects of veterinary antimicrobial use reduction policies: China’s experience and worldwide implications

Mitigating antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in veterinary medicine is critical to achieving the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Most countries have adopted tailored antimicrobial reduction policies in animal production, yet rigorous cost-benefit evaluations remain scarce. We leverage China’s large-scale 2021 veterinary antimicrobial use reduction (AUR) policies as a quasi-natural experiment, employing a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity (FRD) design to estimate its causal effects on farmers’ net income and disentangle the transmission mechanisms using three-wave panel data from hog farmers (2022–2024). The empirical results demonstrate that the AUR policies exhibited a dynamic pattern of initial income suppression followed by income enhancement, with the estimated effect turning positive in the second year of implementation (2023). Based on the baseline FRD estimates, the average effect over the full panel period is an increase of 186.504–198.708 CNY per head, representing 34.09 %–36.32 % of the three-year average net income. This effect is primarily driven by changes in cost-benefit indicators such as slaughter weight, market premiums, biosecurity expenditures, antimicrobial input costs, and antimicrobial alternative costs. We elucidate the underlying mechanisms through which AUR policy interventions operate, specifically via antimicrobial use regulation, compulsory immunization, antimicrobial-reduction compliance certification, and antimicrobial-reduction technical training. During the AUR’s initial rollout (2022), antimicrobial use regulation was the primary income suppressor, whereas market premiums became the dominant income driver in the maturation phase (2023–2024). Moreover, heterogeneity analysis shows that the income-enhancing effect of the AUR policies was more pronounced among farmers who possessed high digital literacy and had organizational support, compared to those without these advantages. Based onChina’s AUR experience, weproposefive policy insightsthat are particularly relevant fordeveloping-country contexts: optimized policy mixes, tiered biosecurity systems, scalable antimicrobial alternatives, targeted market incentives, and inclusive global governance frameworks.