Trajectories into famine: observations of patterns and implications for prevention

The prevention of famine is once again a significant humanitarian and policy issue. The population at risk has risen and a number of policy initiatives have been initiated to address the threat of famine. While actual famines, as determined by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) thresholds are still relatively rare, near-famine crises are increasingly frequent, suggesting the need for earlier prevention measures. Based on a 2020 observation of different trajectories into famine and recent insights from famine theory, this paper analyzes four recent cases of famine or near famine crises, and identifies five common categories of factors and 12–15 context-specific indicators within those categories that describe famine trajectories. This paper develops two novel ways of analyzing and depicting them. The main finding is that the shape of the trajectory matters less than the observation of how and when a trajectory—in other words, a famine system—starts. The ability to demonstrate the onset of a famine trajectory (as opposed to simply warning of worsening food insecurity) should enable earlier interventions to prevent famine.