Addressing conflict and weather shocks in agrifood value chains: policy preferences of Nigerian maize wholesalers

We study the preferences of Nigerian maize wholesalers regarding interventions or measures (henceforth, “policies”) aimed at preventing or mitigating the effects of violent conflicts and extreme weather events on their trade. Using the best-worst scaling method, we evaluate their preferences for nine policy options related to conflict shocks and eight policy options for weather shocks, categorized into hard and soft infrastructure policy measures. The method was implemented using primary survey data collected from 300 urban and regional market maize wholesalers across major maize-producing and consuming states in Nigeria, including Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, and Plateau in the north, as well as Oyo in the south. The key findings include: (1) wholesalers strongly prefer road security soft infrastructure for conflict shocks and flood-proofing hard infrastructure for weather shocks; (2) wholesalers, in general, value cash relief after shocks; (3) women wholesalers prioritize public hard infrastructure over cash relief; (4) wholesalers in the relatively safer southern region prioritize road security against conflict and banditry on long supply routes from the northern maize-producing region more than northern wholesalers, who source locally; and (5) more educated wholesalers favor market-oriented solutions like insurance and loans. These results highlight the need for tailored policy responses aligned with different shocks and wholesaler characteristics.