What is the magnitude of risk exposure in China’s bioeconomic supply chains?

The stability of bioeconomic supply chains is crucial for both national security and environmental sustainability. This study adopts a global supply chain perspective and primarily utilizes the Import Side of Foreign Production Exposure (FPEM) indicator to assess the risk exposure of China’s bioeconomy, based on data from the OECD ICIO tables. The findings indicate that the overall levels of domestic and foreign risk exposure across various sectors of China’s bioeconomy are relatively high, which makes it more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions than the U.S. and the EU. However, the proportion of foreign risk exposure in China’s bioeconomic sectors remains relatively modest, ranging from approximately 7% to 12%. Moreover, the look through foreign risk exposure of China’s bioeconomy consistently exceeds its face value foreign risk exposure, suggesting that certain foreign supply chain risks may be concealed. Notably, the Agriculture sector shows the most significant increase in look through foreign risk exposure, implying a gradual rise in potential risks. While the hidden foreign risk exposure in the Food sector demonstrates relatively low volatility, its underlying external dependencies remain a critical concern that should not be underestimated. Additionally, our research shows that the U.S. and China are each other’s largest actual foreign suppliers of intermediate inputs in the bioeconomy. This study not only provides critical insights for the risk management of China’s bioeconomic supply chains but also offers valuable lessons and implications for the security and sustainable development of global bioeconomic supply chains. Food policy implications are also discussed.