Food system interventions in urban environments: Integrating simulation models and stakeholder solutions

Food systems operate across multiple dimensions and scales and often display inflexibility. This is shaped by, amongst other aspects, fragmented political accountability, competing priorities and power imbalances with actors from ‘big food’ industries in a dominant role. To explore potential leverage points of local policy, we analyse the effects of different food system interventions on food and nutrition security in an urban case study combining an integrated food system model with insights from stakeholder consultation. Through a process involving stakeholder assessment and co-design of intervention plans that are tested in a spatial Bayesian network food system model, we analyse the level of convergence between local perspectives and quantitative modelling results. Our findings highlight the reciprocal benefits of integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches in mitigating existing biases. The approach proposed in this study has shown promise in developing targeted, effective, and actionable local policy plans potentially reducing the probability of unhealthy household diets by up to 8%. Our findings reveal that effective interventions in our case study of Worcester, a secondary city in South Africa, require tailoring to neighbourhood-specific needs. While nutrition aid programs and community initiatives benefit the entire city, disparities in access to infrastructure and services highlight the need for targeted solutions.