On the persistence of fluid identity: Insights from the decline of ethnic voting in Malawi

Recent empirical evidence suggesting the malleability of identity raises the critical question of whether an updated identity, adapted to new environments, endures and under what conditions. To address this question, I analyze the 2009 parliamentary election in Malawi, during which the results deviated from historical voting patterns along ethno-regional lines. Specifically, the southern-based Democratic Progressive Party unexpectedly gained overwhelming support across the country, reducing the salience of local ethnic groups and signaling a drive for unity among historically divided societies. By comparing constituencies where this party barely won or lost, I find that the victory significantly reduced citizens’ sense of ethnic instead of national identity—particularly in rural areas historically aligned with opposition parties. This effect persisted for several years, coinciding with improvements in certain public goods and services, but dissipated within seven years. Furthermore, there is no evidence that selective migration across ethnic homelands, strategic downplaying of ethnic attachments, or post-election disillusionment with the party explains the identity shift, though these alternatives cannot be conclusively dismissed. These findings suggest that while identity can swiftly respond to socioeconomic shocks that alter group salience, it may revert to its original state unless further shocks or policies reinforce the altered identity.