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The heterogeneous effects of borrower-based macroprudential policies on housing markets, credit affordability, and housing stock

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  • Hosszú, Zsuzsanna
  • Borsos, András
  • Mérő, Bence
  • Vágó, Nikolett

Abstract

This study provides a microsimulation-based evaluation of the economic impacts of borrower-based macroprudential policies. While previous research demonstrates the effectiveness of loan-to-value (LTV) and debt service-to-income (DSTI) measures in promoting financial stability, traditional models often fail to account for key heterogeneities across household segments, transaction types, and regional housing market dynamics that shape policy outcomes. Our analysis uses a data-driven model with a detailed, 1:1 scale representation of the Hungarian housing and mortgage markets. This framework not only captures these heterogeneities but also enables the assessment of the effects of LTV and DSTI changes on the quantity and quality of the housing stock, various housing and credit market risk indicators, and the distributional consequences for households. The results highlight significant variation in the impacts of different borrower-based policy scenarios, underscoring the importance of considering these dimensions when designing and evaluating such policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Borsos, András & Mérő, Bence & Vágó, Nikolett, 2026. "The heterogeneous effects of borrower-based macroprudential policies on housing markets, credit affordability, and housing stock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:246:y:2026:i:c:s0167268126001319
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107545
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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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