Fertility restriction, human capital investment and gender equality: Evidence from the one-child policy in China

This study evaluates the long-term effects of China’s One-Child Policy (OCP) on educational attainment and human capital formation among cohorts born during the policy period. Exploiting variation in fertility penalties across provinces and over time, we find that a one-unit increase in the fine rate increased girls’ educational attainment by 0.292 years relative to boys, with no comparable gains for boys. This gender-differentiated effect accounts for approximately 42 % of the reduction in the gender education gap during this period. The primary mechanism driving this outcome is the reduction in family size induced by the policy, which disproportionately benefited girls. The OCP shifted traditional family dynamics from a model in which “sisters sacrificed for their brothers” to one in which daughters, as only children, accessed educational resources that were previously reserved for sons. This mechanism integrates the quantity–quality (Q–Q) trade-off theory with cultural norms of son preference. We further compare the effects of the OCP on first-generation women (those of childbearing age during the policy period) and second-generation women (those born under the policy). We find that only second-generation women experienced improvements in educational attainment in response to fine intensity, which was accompanied by other long-term outcomes, including delayed marriage, lower fertility, and more progressive gender attitudes relative to men. Overall, the OCP generated unintended yet significant gains for women by contributing to a substantial narrowing of the gender gap in education.