Does variation across judicial circuits matter? Examining the role of bail schedules and pretrial detention on drug case outcomes in Florida

Pretrial detention rates in the United States have been rising for decades, primarily driven by the bail system's overreliance on monetary bail. Although research on bail and pretrial detention has increased, empirical studies have yet to examine how bail schedules affect detention rates and jurisdictional variations in pre- and post-conviction outcomes. This article empirically investigates how bail schedules contribute to disparities in criminal courts by assessing how variations in bail schedules across judicial circuits affect the relationship between bail, detention, and subsequent case outcomes. Using a sample of 3058 felony drug offenses filed in Florida's Circuit Courts in 2017, we estimated multilevel regressions to examine circuit-level variation in bail and pretrial detention outcomes, as well as estimated predicted probabilities of pretrial and sentencing outcomes by detention status. The results show significant variation in both initial bail amounts—largely determined by bail schedules—and the likelihood of pretrial detention across Florida's judicial circuits, even after controlling for relevant factors. Additionally, higher initial bail amounts were found to significantly increase the likelihood of pretrial detention; a pattern consistent across circuits. The results from the predicted probability models further indicate that pretrial detention leads to more punitive pretrial and sentencing outcomes. Taken together, these findings suggest that the implementation of varying bail schedules across judicial circuits in Florida has contributed to systematically more punitive case outcomes for defendants in circuits with higher predetermined bail amounts, and consequently, higher rates of pretrial detention. These findings have implications for bail reform in the United States.