Adverse childhood experiences (ACE) and violent offending among Belizean male offenders: The mediating role of gang affiliation

Violent crime, largely driven by gang-related activity, represents a major public health challenge in Belize. This study examines the impact of Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) on violent criminal behavior, with a specific focus on the mediating role of gang affiliation. Data were collected from 200 incarcerated males (violent = 103; non-violent = 97) through structured interviews and official prison records. Variables measured included ACEs, gang affiliation, and criminal history. A path analysis using a probit model with bootstrapping (3000 draws) tested for mediation. A Bayesian sensitivity analysis was also conducted to confirm robustness. Initial models showed that ACEs were significantly associated with both violent offending (β = 0.16, p < .05) and gang affiliation (β = 0.14, p < .01). However, the direct effect of ACEs on violent offending became nonsignificant when gang affiliation was included. The indirect effect of ACEs on violent offending via gang affiliation was significant (β = 0.16, 95 % CI [0.05, 0.25]). Bayesian analysis yielded consistent estimates (β = 0.44, p < .01). These findings underscore the importance of addressing early adversity and social-contextual risk factors in violence prevention. Interventions targeting trauma and gang involvement may help reduce violent offending among high-risk populations.