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The long-term impact of industrialization campaigns on human capital accumulation: Evidence from the “Construction of Third Front” in China

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  • Fang, Guanghua
  • Liang, Yinhe
  • Qin, Fan

Abstract

In the early 1960s, China launched the “Construction of Third Front” (TF) industrialization campaign for national defense considerations, which significantly spurred manufacturing growth in the underdeveloped hinterland. Exploiting variation in the exposure to the TF across prefectures and cohorts, we find that the TF significantly increased human capital accumulation in the long term. These effects were plausibly driven by improved access to education and healthcare, an income effect, and the dominance of the positive effect of educational returns over the negative impact of the opportunity cost. Further analysis reveals that children with greater exposure to the TF experienced better labor market outcomes, delayed fertility, and smaller family sizes in adulthood.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Guanghua & Liang, Yinhe & Qin, Fan, 2026. "The long-term impact of industrialization campaigns on human capital accumulation: Evidence from the “Construction of Third Front” in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 467-483.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:54:y:2026:i:2:p:467-483
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2026.01.001
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    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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