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The long-run and heterogeneous impact of educational policy on crime

Author

Listed:
  • Bai, Yu
  • Li, Yanjun
  • Liu, Xinyan
  • Tanaka, Ryuichi

Abstract

This study investigates the heterogeneous long-term effects of compulsory education on property crime by exploiting the staggered implementation of China’s Compulsory Schooling Law (CSL) as a natural experiment. Using a novel panel dataset of criminal court verdicts from the China Judgments Online platform, we find that CSL significantly increased educational attainment and reduced property crime rates in affected cohorts. This reduction is concentrated in low-skill theft crimes, with no significant effect on high-skill fraud crimes, suggesting that basic education primarily deters entry-level criminal activity. These results suggest that displacement effects may play a role, highlighting the importance of considering the differential reach of education policies, such as basic compulsory schooling versus higher education expansions, when designing crime prevention strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Yu & Li, Yanjun & Liu, Xinyan & Tanaka, Ryuichi, 2026. "The long-run and heterogeneous impact of educational policy on crime," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 295-311.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:54:y:2026:i:1:p:295-311
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.11.003
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • K15 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Civil Law; Common Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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