Understanding the role of parental support and expectations in preventing grade retention in Chilean schools

This study examines the factors associated with the likelihood of grade retention in Chile, measured as whether students have repeated at least one grade up to 2018. Focusing on the interplay between parental involvement and expectations, individual characteristics, and school-level factors, we estimate a multilevel structural probit model with students nested within schools. This approach allows us to assess the probability of grade retention in 4th, 6th, and 10th grades while accounting for the hierarchical structure of the data. To address the endogeneity of parental expectations—arising from potential reverse causality with student achievement and from omitted contextual factors influencing expectation formation—we incorporate instrumental variables within this nonlinear framework. This strategy enables a direct correction for endogeneity without relying on conventional two-stage methods. The analysis draws on nationally representative samples of students in 4th grade (N = 121,876), 6th grade (N = 112,285), and 10th grade (N = 109,270) in 2018. Results indicate that parental involvement—spanning both overt, school-based and subtle, home-based dimensions—plays a multifaceted role in grade retention. Among the overt dimensions, participation in school activities served as a protective factor, whereas daily help with homework was associated with a greater risk. Among subtle dimensions, parent–child communication and support for learning autonomy were protective, mainly in secondary education. In contrast, negative parental perceptions of schools are associated with higher retention rates. While higher parental expectations are positively associated with student performance, this relationship disappears once endogeneity is accounted for, suggesting that expectations are shaped by prior achievement and context. Finally, school-level variables play a critical role, with schools exhibiting high retention rates emerging as strong predictors of individual grade retention. Our findings have important implications for policies aimed at promoting more inclusive and equitable educational systems.