Structural persistence and life-stage shifts in school dropout: Evidence from Nepal's four-wave national surveys

A decade following the adoption of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4), high rates of school dropout continue to hinder its achievement in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Drawing on Structural Strain, Poor Family Socialization, Deviant Affiliation, and General Deviance theories, as well as national survey data, this study analyzes the reasons for student dropout in Grades 1–12 (N ≈ 27,488), focusing on intergenerational, gendered, caste/ethnic, and stage-specific dynamics. The hypothesis tests indicate that academic-related dropout remains a secondary and relatively consistent factor across survey waves (H1 supported), while economic hardship continues to dominate dropout decisions across cohorts (H2 confirmed). Marriage-related dropout increased significantly among girls, rising from 27.5% in NLSS III to 40.1% in NLSS IV (H3 supported). Dropout patterns vary by cohort as older generations faced structural barriers; girls are more vulnerable to academic and marriage pressures, and Dalit students face early economic constraints. Gender and caste disparities persist, with girls disproportionately affected by academic and marriage pressures and Dalit students experiencing early economic constraints. These findings propose a Life-Stage Sensitive Dropout Theory, conceptualizing dropout as a layered trajectory: economic strain in primary grades, academic disengagement in lower secondary, and socio-cultural pressures in higher grades. Complemented by a Resilient Norms Hypothesis, this framework explains Nepal’s enrollment gains amid retention inequities and offers stage-specific policy recommendations, including conditional cash transfers for early grades, remedial support at transitions, and anti-marriage campaigns for adolescents to advance SDG 4 in Nepal and similar LMIC contexts.