Drivers behind (non-)return of Ghanaian international university graduates: Embracing the complexity over individual explanations

This article explores the complex factors and mechanisms influencing migration decisions of former Ghanaian international students after their graduation at European universities. Using a framework that integrates the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) with key migration concepts, we draw on qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with 45 participants: 22 returnees interviewed in Ghana and 23 non-returnees interviewed abroad. The analysis unfolds in four steps: (1) examining the formation and evolution of return intentions and how they translate into actual decisions; (2) analysing the influence of attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioural control on migration behaviours; (3) developing a typology of drivers that vary across subgroups with distinct intentions and outcomes; and (4) exploring how these drivers interact with TPB constructs to shape decision-making mechanisms. Our findings reveal that return intentions often shift over time and are shaped by a dynamic interplay of structural constraints, personal motivations, and normative pressures. Participants expressed both pro-return and pro-stay orientations, but perceived family expectations tended to favour staying abroad. The decision-making process was rarely shaped by a single factor; rather, intersecting influences created diverse migration trajectories. This study contributes to research on student mobility and return migration by unpacking how decisions are shaped by contextualised perceptions and competing pressures. The findings offer insights for policy discussions on brain circulation and diaspora engagement. Future research could explore similar mechanisms in other national or regional contexts and among graduates in different professional or educational fields.