Global ambitions, local challenges: The complex dynamics of graduate migration intentions in an emerging economy

This study examines the migration intentions of recent graduates in Sri Lanka, focusing on key socio-economic and personal factors influencing their decisions. Using an online survey distributed to graduates from four state and three private universities, data was collected from 405 respondents. The findings indicate that the desire to study at a world-class university, aspirations for an international career, and perceptions of the current economic situation significantly drive migration intentions. Social capital and political perceptions negatively correlate with migration intentions, suggesting that strong domestic networks and dissatisfaction with governance may reduce, rather than increase, the likelihood of migration. Although family influence was not statistically significant, it was included in the extended analysis. The study identifies gender-based differences, with female graduates more likely to express migration intentions than males. Gender-disaggregated analysis shows that political perceptions and social capital significantly influence male graduates, while educational aspirations and economic concerns are stronger predictors among female graduates. The results highlight the dominant role of career-related aspirations and economic conditions in shaping migration decisions. While traditional push factors such as economic hardship are relevant, the influence of educational aspirations and cultural expectations suggests that migration is also driven by broader social and professional ambitions. The gender disparity in migration intentions underscores the need to examine how labour market conditions and social norms differently affect male and female graduates. These findings emphasize the importance of enhancing local career opportunities, improving higher education standards, and addressing labour market mismatches to manage graduate migration trends.