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Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Xiao
  • Huang, Hanwei
  • Ju, Jiandong
  • Sun, Ruoyan
  • Zhang, Jialiang

Abstract

We analyze infectious diseases in a general equilibrium model with endogenous mobility, where forward-looking agents weigh disease risks against economic opportunities in cross-regional mobility decisions. This generates “self-containment” and “self-healing” mobility responses to regional differences in healthcare and prevalence. Applied to US COVID-19 data, our model reveals that cross-state mobility restrictions curbed infections by reducing cross-regional contacts but increased deaths and output losses by hindering mobility toward regions with better recovery outcomes. Relative to a model with exogenous mobility, our framework predicts fewer infections, lower mortality, and higher economic output following the unanticipated pandemic shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Xiao & Huang, Hanwei & Ju, Jiandong & Sun, Ruoyan & Zhang, Jialiang, 2026. "Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:162:y:2026:i:c:s0022199626000887
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104298
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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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