From corporate responsibility to corporate sustainability: A study of how ESG mitigates corporate default risk using serial mediation analysis

This study investigates how Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance is linked to the corporate default risk. Using listed Indian firms from 2016 to 2024, this study finds that ESG performance and its individual dimensions are negatively related to default risk via improved Altman Z-score. The advanced serial mediation analysis using the PROCESS model 6 suggests that ESG information is transmitted to lower default risk via enhanced corporate efficiency (CEF), improved financial performance indicated by return on assets (ROA), and lowered the cost of borrowing indicated by the cost of debt (COD). Applying the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Difference (DID) technique, this study also documents that firms that are part of the NIFTY100ESG index have significantly better financial resilience than companies not part of the index after the COVID-19 crisis. Through ex-post analysis in the case of defaulted firms, this study finds that ESG performance can predict corporate default events if combined with other parameters effectively. The findings supported by the legitimacy theory indicate that firms can increase corporate sustainability and legitimacy not only through improvements in corporate efficiency and profitability but also through external perceptions, responsibility, and ethical practices, which function as an ‘insurance effect’. Thus, policymakers should encourage lenders to integrate ESG factors into business models and promote sustainable business practices to reduce financial risks. This will accelerate the firms' adoption of cleaner technologies, enhance governance standards, and strengthen overall financial stability and corporate sustainability.