IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/glofin/v67y2025ics1044028325000924.html

The stock market effects of committing and setting GHG targets: evidence from the science-based targets initiative

Author

Listed:
  • Guerrero-Escobar, Santiago
  • Hernández-del-Valle, Gerardo
  • Hernández-Vega, Marco

Abstract

Many companies are adopting ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-reduction targets that align with the Paris Agreement, regarding broader climate strategies. Despite this trend, empirical evidence on the implications to the financial market remains limited. This paper examines how committing to and setting GHG targets affect stock returns and volatility, using a daily panel of publicly listed companies from January 2015 to October 2024. We employ an event study framework, supplemented by a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with a novel trend component. Our findings show that neither committing to nor setting a GHG target has a statistically significant impact on stock returns. However, both actions are associated with reductions in stock price volatility in a few countries, like Australia, Japan, South Africa, Taiwan, and New Zealand. This suggests that market responses to climate commitments can vary across regional and policy contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerrero-Escobar, Santiago & Hernández-del-Valle, Gerardo & Hernández-Vega, Marco, 2025. "The stock market effects of committing and setting GHG targets: evidence from the science-based targets initiative," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:67:y:2025:i:c:s1044028325000924
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101165
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1044028325000924
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101165?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George Serafeim & Aaron Yoon, 2022. "Which Corporate ESG News Does the Market React To?," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 78(1), pages 59-78, January.
    2. Mario La Torre & Fabiomassimo Mango & Arturo Cafaro & Sabrina Leo, 2020. "Does the ESG Index Affect Stock Return? Evidence from the Eurostoxx50," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-12, August.
    3. Lourdes Uribe & Benjamin Perea & Gerardo Hernández-del-Valle & Oliver Schütze, 2018. "A Hybrid Metaheuristic for the Efficient Solution of GARCH with Trend Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 145-166, June.
    4. Carlos Dobkin & Amy Finkelstein & Raymond Kluender & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2018. "The Economic Consequences of Hospital Admissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 308-352, February.
    5. Gunnar Friede & Timo Busch & Alexander Bassen, 2015. "ESG and financial performance: aggregated evidence from more than 2000 empirical studies," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 210-233, October.
    6. Shanaev, Savva & Ghimire, Binam, 2022. "When ESG meets AAA: The effect of ESG rating changes on stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    7. Makridou, Georgia & Doumpos, Michalis & Galariotis, Emilios, 2019. "The financial performance of firms participating in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 250-259.
    8. Douglas L. Miller, 2023. "An Introductory Guide to Event Study Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 203-230, Spring.
    9. Ulrich Atz & Tracy Van Holt & Zongyuan Zoe Liu & Christopher C. Bruno, 2023. "Does sustainability generate better financial performance? review, meta-analysis, and propositions," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 802-825, January.
    10. De Vincentiis, Paola, 2024. "ESG news, stock volatility and tactical disclosure," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Frederik Dahlmann & Layla Branicki & Stephen Brammer, 2019. "Managing Carbon Aspirations: The Influence of Corporate Climate Change Targets on Environmental Performance," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 1-24, August.
    12. Roel Brouwers & Frederiek Schoubben & Cynthia Van Hulle, 2018. "The influence of carbon cost pass through on the link between carbon emission and corporate financial performance in the context of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1422-1436, December.
    13. Xiao, Xiao & Zhou, Chen, 2018. "The decomposition of jump risks in individual stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 207-228.
    14. Janet Currie & Henrik Kleven & Esmée Zwiers, 2020. "Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics: Mining Text to Track Methods," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 42-48, May.
    15. Aswani, Jitendra & Raghunandan, Aneesh & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2024. "Are carbon emissions associated with StockReturns? - Reply," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121632, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Bohyun Yoon & Jeong Hwan Lee & Ryan Byun, 2018. "Does ESG Performance Enhance Firm Value? Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-18, October.
    17. Leite, Brian J. & Uysal, Vahap B., 2023. "Does ESG matter to investors? ESG scores and the stock price response to new information," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    18. Aswani, Jitendra & Raghunandan, Aneesh & Rajgopal, Shivaram, 2024. "Are carbon emissions associated with stock returns?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118364, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Jitendra Aswani & Aneesh Raghunandan & Shiva Rajgopal, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns?—Reply," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 111-115.
    20. Jitendra Aswani & Aneesh Raghunandan & Shiva Rajgopal, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 75-106.
    21. Hernández del Valle Gerardo & Juárez-Torres Miriam & Guerrero Santiago, 2016. "A Functional Approach to Test Trending Volatility," Working Papers 2016-04, Banco de México.
    22. David Bendig & Andreas Wagner & Kevin Lau, 2023. "Does it pay to be science‐based green? The impact of science‐based emission‐reduction targets on corporate financial performance," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(1), pages 125-140, February.
    23. Amir Amel-Zadeh & George Serafeim, 2018. "Why and How Investors Use ESG Information: Evidence from a Global Survey," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(3), pages 87-103, July.
    24. Nils Engelhardt & Jens Ekkenga & Peter Posch, 2021. "ESG Ratings and Stock Performance during the COVID-19 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-15, June.
    25. Ayton, Julie & Krasnikova, Natalia & Malki, Issam, 2022. "Corporate social performance and financial risk: Further empirical evidence using higher frequency data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    26. López Prol, Javier & Kim, Kiwoong, 2022. "Risk-return performance of optimized ESG equity portfolios in the NYSE," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Hernandez-Vega, 2025. "Corporate GHG Emissions and Financial Performance: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis of Sectoral Heterogeneity in Advanced and Emerging Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-26, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alves, Rómulo & Krüger, Philipp & van Dijk, Mathijs, 2025. "Drawing up the bill: Are ESG ratings related to stock returns around the world?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Hambel, Christoph & van der Sanden, Floor, 2025. "Reevaluating the carbon premium: Evidence of green outperformance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Yan, Ying & Lin, Tao & Ma, Heng, 2025. "The impact of corporate climate risk on carbon intensity: Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    4. Rabab Abouarab & Tapas Mishra & Simon Wolfe, 2025. "Spotting Portfolio Greenwashing in Environmental Funds," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 197(4), pages 811-839, April.
    5. Chang, Hao-Wen & Chi, Pei-Yu & Lin, Chin-Ho, 2025. "Superiority of ESG-oriented portfolios in Taiwan stock market: Quantile-on-quantile with GARCH approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Eleonora Salzmann, 2025. "Disaggregated ESG Risk in European Asset Pricing Based on ESG Leaders Data," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 19(2), pages 204-233.
    7. Guerrero-Escobar Santiago & Hernández-del-Valle Gerardo & Hernández Vega Marco & De-la-Mora Paula, 2023. "The Stock Market Effects of Committing and Setting GHG Targets: Evidence from the Science-Based Initiative," Working Papers 2023-15, Banco de México.
    8. Zhenyu Zhu & Yixiang Tian & Xiaoying Zhao & Huiling Huang, 2025. "Green Washing, Green Bond Issuance, and the Pricing of Carbon Risk: Evidence from A-Share Listed Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-23, May.
    9. Aobdia, Daniel & Köchling, Gerrit & Limbach, Peter & Yoon, Aaron, 2025. "Emissions restatements after the SEC's request for public input on climate-related disclosures: Evidence from carbon disclosure project filings," CFR Working Papers 25-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    10. Gibbon, Kayshani & Derwall, Jeroen & Gerritsen, Dirk & Koedijk, Kees, 2025. "Renaming with purpose: Investor response and fund manager behaviour after fund ESG renaming," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Erdinc Akyildirim & Shaen Corbet, 2025. "Examining the Financial Impact of Biodiversity‐Related Reputational Disasters," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 4500-4522, July.
    12. Nakagawa, Kei & Morita, Keisuke & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2025. "Stochastic ESG scores and nonpecuniary ESG preferences: An extension to CAPM," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Wilberg, Sindre & Kjellevoll, Vibeke & Holz, Franziska & Neumann, Anne, 2025. "Impact of ESG performance on the cost of capital in the energy, utilities, and basic materials sectors," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    14. Annemarie Berkhout & Martijn Boermans & Justin Dijk & Wim Goossens & Trond Husby, 2026. "Expanding carbon indicator scope by looking through investment funds - an overview of statistical methodologies," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistics and beyond: new data for decision making in central banks, volume 66, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Prodosh Eugene Simlai, 2025. "Non-Pecuniary Risk, ESG Ratings, and Expected Stock Returns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-24, August.
    16. Fliegel, Philip, 2025. "“Brown” Risk or “Green” Opportunity? The dynamic pricing of climate transition risk on global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Lu, Xinjie & Zeng, Qing & Huang, Yisu & Wu, Hanlin, 2025. "Management climate risk concern and corporate bond credit spread," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    18. Fu, Haoliang & Li, Mao & Guo, Wenwei & Huang, Jinbo, 2025. "Digital transformation and carbon reduction: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Masry, Shadin & Masum, Abdullah-Al & Ouni, Zeineb, 2025. "Carbon risk and trade credit," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    20. Zhou, Peng & Mo, Lingyu & Tan, Changchun & Wu, Huaqing, 2025. "Carbon regulatory risk exposure in the bond market: A quasi-natural experiment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:67:y:2025:i:c:s1044028325000924. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.