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Lucky but confident –The effect of confidence on meritocratic beliefs and preferences for redistribution

Author

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  • Hansson, Kajsa
  • Sund, Oda Kristine Storstad

Abstract

How does confidence in combination with success affect meritocratic beliefs and preferences for redistribution? In a large-scale real-effort competition (n = 1365), we manipulate both confidence and the outcome of the competition to provide causal evidence. First, we show that increased confidence causes successful participants to perceive outcomes as more meritocratic, while unsuccessful participants perceive outcomes as more determined by luck. Thus, increased confidence polarizes meritocratic beliefs between successful and unsuccessful individuals. Second, we find no statistically significant effect of confidence on preferences for redistribution. However, we do find that winning the competition significantly reduces the willingness to redistribute, regardless of confidence treatment. Our findings suggest that disagreements about the causes of inequality are most likely among individuals who anticipate success in a meritocratic system, and that success and failure can have large polarizing effects on preferences for redistribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansson, Kajsa & Sund, Oda Kristine Storstad, 2026. "Lucky but confident –The effect of confidence on meritocratic beliefs and preferences for redistribution," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 462-487.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:158:y:2026:i:c:p:462-487
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2026.04.003
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    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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