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Failing to correctly aggregate signals

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  • Piccione, Michele
  • Rubinstein, Ariel

Abstract

Individuals fail to recognize that two weak positive signals of a rare event together constitute strong evidence for the event. We demonstrate the dramatic effect of replacing Bayesian aggregation of signals with commonly used aggregation procedures in a simple model of opinion formation and a model of strategic voting.

Suggested Citation

  • Piccione, Michele & Rubinstein, Ariel, 2026. "Failing to correctly aggregate signals," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 122-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:158:y:2026:i:c:p:122-131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2026.02.003
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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