When growth meets food security: Nonlinear deforestation dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa

Deforestation remains a major obstacle to sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), driven by rapid population growth, persistent food insecurity, and reliance on land-intensive agricultural systems. This study revisits the growth–deforestation relationship by integrating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for deforestation (EKCd) with the forest transition hypothesis, while explicitly examining the conditioning role of food productivity. The Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) approach was employed. The findings reveal pronounced nonlinear economic–deforestation dynamics, corresponding to inverted U-shaped, N-shaped, and inverted M-shaped EKCd patterns. The turning points suggest that forest loss initially increases with economic growth but may stabilize or decline at intermediate stages of development. The interaction between economic growth and food productivity consistently indicates that higher agricultural productivity weakens the deforestation-inducing effects of economic growth. The share of agricultural land emerges as the most structurally important driver of deforestation across all model specifications. The findings suggest the need for integrated development strategies that prioritize agricultural intensification, land-use planning, and institutional support alongside economic growth to achieve lasting reductions in deforestation and sustainable transitions.