Determining future climate services of the Swiss forest and wood sector: What can we learn from extending global shared socioeconomic pathways?

The Paris Agreement, designed to limit global temperature rise, has led signatory countries to adopt net-zero emission targets. In Switzerland, this target is set for 2050. The forest and wood sector (FWS) can contribute to achieving it through various climate services: carbon sequestration in forests, carbon storage in harvested wood products, and the substitution of energy-intensive materials and fossil fuels with wood. However, the services' future contribution remains uncertain, as it depends on the FWS' development. In this study, we develop five Swiss forest sector pathways (CH-FSPs) to outline possible futures of the Swiss FWS by 2050. To this end, we extend the global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and global forest sector pathways (FSPs) to the Swiss context through expert workshops, following a detailed protocol. We then assess the climate services associated with each CH-FSP by constructing effect diagrams based on expert interviews. To our knowledge, the CH-FSPs represent the first extension of the global SSPs and FSPs to a national FWS. Our results demonstrate that the extent of climate services depends strongly on future developments in the FWS and the accounting approach applied. These insights can assist practitioners and policymakers in shaping future forest management and wood-use strategies that align with Switzerland's net-zero target. Furthermore, the CH-FSPs provide a scientific basis to integrate quantitative model outputs for the Swiss FWS into broader socioeconomic contexts consistent with global SSPs and FSPs. Overall, our study contributes to international efforts to build comprehensive and coherent scenario frameworks across spatial scales and sectors.