IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v186y2026ics1389934126000602.html

Globally informed and locally refined: Market, management, and carbon projections for the Southeastern United States forest sector

Author

Listed:
  • Manner, Richard H.
  • Guo, Jinggang
  • Clutter, Matt
  • Sodiya, Olakunle E.
  • Abt, Robert C.
  • Sheffield, Raymond M.
  • Baker, Justin S.

Abstract

This study integrates recently updated National-Scale Volume Biomass (NSVB) estimates with a spatially-aware carbon accounting methodology in the SubRegional Timber Supply (SRTS) model to project forest market dynamics, land use change, inventory, and carbon fluxes for the Southeastern United States through 2070. Using four socioeconomic scenarios from the 2020 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment aligned with IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we analyze how global market demands interact with regional forest management, market, and carbon dynamics. Results indicate declining softwood pulpwood prices across all scenarios despite increasing demand, driven by inventory accumulation while sawtimber markets show flat to rising prices under most scenarios. We project a relatively stable carbon sink coming from managed planted pine systems, despite an overall decline in the regional aboveground forest carbon sink. This finding underscores the important contribution planted systems can have to the US and global LULUCF carbon sinks. A bootstrapped sensitivity analysis conducted around the elasticity assumptions reveals the extent to which inventory parameters influence the results compared with supply or demand assumptions. These findings illustrate the importance of market-responsive management in shaping future forest carbon trajectories.

Suggested Citation

  • Manner, Richard H. & Guo, Jinggang & Clutter, Matt & Sodiya, Olakunle E. & Abt, Robert C. & Sheffield, Raymond M. & Baker, Justin S., 2026. "Globally informed and locally refined: Market, management, and carbon projections for the Southeastern United States forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:186:y:2026:i:c:s1389934126000602
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103755
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934126000602
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103755?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:186:y:2026:i:c:s1389934126000602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.