Temporal shifts in the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in community forests: Insights from Shan State, Myanmar

Community forests (CFs) are widely adopted in tropical regions as a strategy to conserve forests and improve local livelihoods. However, their effectiveness is vulnerable to political instability, which disrupts governance structures. These disruptions may accelerate deforestation and forest degradation, yet the shifting influence of underlying factors remains poorly understood. This study investigated how geographical and community characteristics shaped deforestation and forest degradation in 24 CFs in Shan State, Myanmar, across two periods: a stable period in 2017–2019 (Period 1) and a politically unstable period in 2021–2023 (Period 2). Using forest cover/disturbance maps derived from the Dynamic World dataset, we applied generalized linear mixed models via the INLA–SPDE framework to identify the factors influencing deforestation and forest degradation across each period. Deforestation was marginally higher in Period 2 (0.75%) than in Period 1 (0.71%), and forest degradation was higher in Period 1 (1.46%) than in Period 2 (0.99%). Forest cover ratio and distance to the CF boundary exhibited no significant temporal shifts in their effects on forest outcomes. Slope indicated a significant temporal change in its association with deforestation. Leadership demonstrated a significant temporal shift in its influence on forest degradation. Notably, community attributes were measured once (pre-instability) and treated as time-invariant, though their levels may have changed over time. Examining how the influence of geographical and community characteristics varies across stable and unstable governance conditions clarifies how political instability alters the drivers of these ecological outcomes, informing strategies for resilience in community-based conservation efforts.