A horizon scan of global issues on forests and livelihoods for 2026

Thriving forests and forest-connected communities' livelihoods depend on stable governance arrangements, secure rights, and favourable financial and market conditions. However, recent geopolitical, economic, and technological changes raise concerns that emerging risks may outpace existing systems of oversight, participation, and protection. While global environmental change is widely studied, less attention has been given to how recent political, financial, and technological shifts may reshape forests and forest-connected livelihoods in the near term. To identify emerging, near-term challenges and opportunities, we conducted a four-stage Delphi-style horizon scan with an international panel of 25 experts to identify ten emerging issues expected to shape forests and forest-connected livelihoods over the next decade. These key issues for 2026 include: (i) the decline of traditional Global North aid and research funding; (ii) social–ecological change driven by technologies including artificial intelligence, remote sensing, and expanding satellite internet connectivity; (iii) accelerating demand for gold and critical minerals, particularly rare earths / noble earths, and the expansion of extraction frontiers; (iv) rising authoritarianism and shrinking civic space; (v) evolving regulation and growth of carbon and emerging biodiversity and ecosystem service markets (vi) erosion of the post–World War II multilateral order and associated international norms; (vii) emergence of innovative mechanisms for direct financing to Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities; (viii) major shifts in EU trade and due-diligence regimes; (ix) the African Union's new ten-year agri-food strategy and its implications for land use; and (x) the uncertain fate of the Amazon rainforest under upcoming national elections in Brazil, Peru, and Colombia. By identifying and discussing these key issues, our horizon scan yields new understanding and foresight of how rapidly unfolding current events and advances may influence forests, forest-connected communities, and their livelihoods in the coming years. In so doing, our exercise also develops an agenda for research, policy, and practice at the intersection of forests and livelihoods.