Hidden inequality: Rethinking non-timber forest products for bioeconomic development in Southwest China

While NTFPs (Non-timber forest products) sustain livelihoods for billions worldwide, their role in bioeconomy transitions remains understudied, particularly regarding dynamic market mechanisms and equitable outcomes. This study addresses this gap by analyzing walnut production in southwest China through a dynamic value chain perspective, using an “Actor-Profit-Mechanisms” framework to trace walnut flows in 2015 and 2022. The research provides a fine-grained analysis of an upstream section of the walnut value chain to highlight how market fluctuations and institutional structures reshape access and redistribute benefits across actors. The findings reveal three hidden inequalities: 1) persistent profit outflow from farmers due to weak market positioning; 2) cascading costs and risks disproportionately burdening smallholders; and 3) social relationship distortions tied to price fluctuations, where power dynamics shift between actors. These inequalities become more pronounced and intensify during periods of sharp price decline, as they are rooted in farmers' dispersed resources, hierarchical value-chain structures, and reliance on informal social capital. The study challenges assumptions of NTFPs as a panacea for poverty alleviation in the transition to bioeconomy, highlighting how a dynamic perspective can deepen the understanding of the systemic vulnerabilities. To enhance equity, policy interventions must prioritize local value chain upgrades, such as fostering processing enterprises, diversifying products, and establishing risk-mitigation mechanisms.