A biblio-econometric analysis of tropical forest loss dynamics

Tropical forests, crucial for the planet, are witnessing alarming rates of loss. Literature resulting from research on tropical forest loss (TFL) has been extensive over the last three decades, but its connection with TFL drivers and contribution to halting TFL remains unexplored. This study spotlights the TFL and its related research trends, merging bibliometric analysis and econometric modeling using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Granger causality approaches. We relied on data encompassing 4132 publications on TFL and 1683 observations for each driver from 51 tropical countries, covering the period 1990–2022. The TFL bibliography has increased primarily outside of tropical countries, although its impact is still hampered by weak policy endorsement. Agricultural expansion is identified as the strongest TFL driver, with 1 million hectares of new farmland inducing 1.5 million hectares of TFL. Similarly, logging has a delayed but significant impact on TFL. In contrast, mining and improvement of GDP per capita initially increase TFL but contribute to its reduction after two years, supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Our findings reveal that research on TFL is crucial for reducing TFL, as each additional 10 publications contributes to a reduction of 0.7 million hectares of TFL in the subsequent year. Literature citations revealed a delayed and indirect effect, highlighting a research-policy gap. The outlined results emphasize the importance of translating scientific knowledge into governance actions. Strengthening science-policy interfaces, enhancing research alignment with conservation goals and investing in policy-responsive knowledge systems are crucial for transitioning to effective sustainability in tropical forests.