Evaluating hurricane impacts on timber Markets in the Southeastern United States: A case of hurricane Michael

The intensity of catastrophic weather events, such as hurricanes, are projected to increase across the Southeastern United States (US). With nearly half of the region's land covered by productive forests, periodic large-scale storms frequently disrupt timber supply and destabilize local markets. We investigate the impact of Hurricane Michael (2018) on timber markets in the Southeastern Coastal US, employing a Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT) design. Using bi-monthly stumpage price data from hurricane-affected and surrounding micro-markets, we estimate causal effects on market responses across stumpage products. Findings indicate that Hurricane Michael led to a 6 % decline in pine pulpwood prices across the region, and a 9 % and 77 % decrease in pine sawtimber and hardwood sawtimber prices, respectively, in severely damaged areas. In unaffected or lightly impacted regions, the price effects were more variable and product specific. The findings shed light on the timber market dynamics immediately following a catastrophic hurricane and provide nuanced perspectives to forest managers, landowners, and timber investors as they plan for future risk management in timber supply chain and forest sustainability.