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How fast does the Fed reach DeFi? Pass-through and settlement lags in stablecoin yields

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  • Liang, Jiaochen

Abstract

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) stablecoin markets increasingly function as a shadow overnight dollar system, yet the speed at which U.S. monetary policy transmits to on-chain yields remains unclear. Focusing on the recent “High-for-Long” regime (2023–2025), I study this pass-through using daily Aave V3 deposit rates for USDC and USDT. Guided by a simple conceptual framework of settlement frictions and arbitrage constraints, I estimate an ordered VAR that controls for equity- and crypto-market cycles. The results show that DeFi yields are tightly anchored to the Federal Funds Rate (and, in robustness, SOFR), challenging the “crypto-decoupling” narrative. However, transmission exhibits a distinct T + 3 structural latency, universal across both compliant USDC and unregulated USDT, indicating an infrastructural, systemic friction rather than issuer-specific constraints. Robustness tests, alternative-explanations analysis, and quantity-based mechanism checks rule out protocol outliers, broader macro trends, and weekend artifacts, supporting an interpretation based on delayed settlement and execution across fiat rails. Complementary basis regressions provide a direct pricing implication: the on/off-chain spread exhibits a significant, predictable wedge during the settlement window that dissipates thereafter. The findings imply that despite algorithmic immediacy, DeFi remains constrained by fiat infrastructure, and that improving on-chain capital efficiency may require modernizing payment rails alongside issuer-focused regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang, Jiaochen, 2026. "How fast does the Fed reach DeFi? Pass-through and settlement lags in stablecoin yields," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:99:y:2026:i:c:s1544612326005088
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109979
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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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