IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v89y2026ics1544612325026066.html

The trump shockwave: How presidential tenure redefined cross-asset spillovers in cryptocurrency, commodity, and capital markets

Author

Listed:
  • Wei, Yu
  • Hu, Rui
  • Wang, Qian
  • Zhou, Chunyan

Abstract

During Donald Trump's presidency, his embrace of unilateral policies, coupled with a focus on trade protectionism—evidenced by the imposition of high tariffs and withdrawal from multilateral agreements—significantly influenced not only the dynamics but also the interactions among cryptocurrencies, US commodity markets, and US capital markets. This paper provides a quantitative analysis of how Trump's tenure shaped the spillover effects across these markets. The results reveal that, during Trump's presidency, the total spillover across assets was notably dampened, primarily due to the diminishing spillover influence of the US dollar. Additionally, the spillover intensity of Bitcoin to other assets strengthened significantly during this period, with Treasury bills and crude oil following closely behind. In contrast, the US stock market and the US dollar clearly experienced a reduction in their spillover dominance. These results carry significant economic implications for investors in their portfolio allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei, Yu & Hu, Rui & Wang, Qian & Zhou, Chunyan, 2026. "The trump shockwave: How presidential tenure redefined cross-asset spillovers in cryptocurrency, commodity, and capital markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:89:y:2026:i:c:s1544612325026066
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.109357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325026066
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.109357?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:89:y:2026:i:c:s1544612325026066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.