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Gold and cryptocurrencies as safe-havens: Lessons from wartime

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  • Pastén-Henríquez, Boris
  • Tapia-Griñen, Pablo
  • Sepúlveda-Velásquez, Jorge

Abstract

During wartime, investors seek safe havens for various assets, creating volatility in the financial markets. This study analyzes the safe-haven capacity of a group of assets during the Russia–Ukraine and Palestine–Israel conflicts. Using DCC−GARCH and event study, we find that assets with an upward correlation with the market before the conflict, which we define as a positive push, manifest safe-haven asset capacity and potentially bullish returns. These results could be key in the design of investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Pastén-Henríquez, Boris & Tapia-Griñen, Pablo & Sepúlveda-Velásquez, Jorge, 2025. "Gold and cryptocurrencies as safe-havens: Lessons from wartime," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:79:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325004933
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107230
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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