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Guns’N Roses: Political assassination attempt and cryptocurrency markets

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  • Galati, Luca
  • Russo, Carmine

Abstract

This paper examines how the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt on Donald Trump propagated through cryptocurrency markets. Using minute-by-minute data for the ten largest crypto-assets, we employ a BEKK-MGARCH framework to assess volatility dynamics and an event-study of cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) to identify the transmission mechanism. We document a pronounced intensification of volatility spillovers following the shock, indicating financial contagion and heightened cross-asset risk transmission. CARs are uniformly positive across all assets, averaging approximately 15%, consistent with information-driven herd behavior rather than asset-specific fundamental revaluation. Narrative-driven tokens such as Dogecoin and Ripple exhibit the largest gains, while protocol-oriented assets such as Polkadot and Avalanche respond more moderately. Our findings show that positive political shocks synchronize investor beliefs, amplify speculative coordination, and tighten volatility interdependence in cryptocurrency markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Galati, Luca & Russo, Carmine, 2026. "Guns’N Roses: Political assassination attempt and cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:103:y:2026:i:c:s1544612326006690
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.110141
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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