Uranium enrichment and heavy water production

Estimates of demand for uranium enrichment and heavy water for use in nuclear fuel cycles in countries outside the centrally planned economies are balanced against current and planned additions to the capacity for these services. The demand estimates are based on recent OECD projections of nuclear power growth to the year 2025 and the possible mix of reactor types. Past experience indicates that such projections should be viewed with caution. However, a robust conclusion is that the expansion of nuclear power worldwide need not be constrained by a lack of capacity for either uranium enrichment or heavy-water production. The competition between current suppliers, as well as the desire on the part of several other countries to achieve an independent enrichment capability, will spur the development of advanced enrichment technologies. Based on studies to date, it appears that it will be possible to develop acceptable procedures for the efficient safeguarding of enrichment plants. Thus, from the proliferation perspective, the spread of a technology is probably a greater risk than the existence of a safeguarded commercial plant based on that technology. This argues for continued efforts to restrict access, particularly in the case of technologies that may be amenable to production of highly enriched uranium on a relatively small scale.