Exploring alternative energy strategies

One major message of this paper, and of this Conference for that matter, is that it is essential to widen our agendas so that all possible alternative energy strategies can be explored. In any case, over the next 50 years or so several tens of terawatts of power have to be supplied, whether we consider a high-energy or a low-energy demand scenario. This is a formidable task that requires the development of all potential energy resources at small scales and large scales, and as decentralized and centralized units. Thus, the major task ahead is to determine the “best” mix of energy resources that makes economic sense whilst guaranteeing a livable environment. With the proper support, the solar-based renewable energy resources could play an important role in the transition from a consumptive to an endowment energy economy. A global installed capacity between 10 and 20 TW by 2030, and even an all-solar energy economy by the end of the next century, are considered definite possibilities. The pursuit of an energy path of such magnitude is subject to severe constraints. Beside the technological and economic questions, future energy strategies must, more than in the past, address themselves to the societal, political, institutional, resource base, environmental and other sectoral issues, including those of food, health, urbanization, and industrialization. The agenda for the energy debate must further include such vital issues as time frames and implications for future generations; international relations and questions of interdependence; North-South equity and vulnerability; cost-benefit and risk-benefit analyses; issues of centralization and decentralization; and questions of lifestyles and progress. Virtually all of these issues of the ongoing energy debate are controversial, making a choice difficult. The difficulty is compounded by the fact that the key ingredients of choice—prudence and wisdom—cannot be treated in a rigorously scientific manner. In such a state of uncertainty, it seems prudent to adopt a flexible energy strategy that can accommodate as many energy options at as many scales as practical.