Capacity adequacy in the electrifying Nordic and Baltic region

The energy systems in northern Europe are rapidly electrifying due to increasing electric vehicle (EV) deployment, electrifying industrial processes, and use of electricity in heating. The Nordic and Baltic electricity markets are facing new challenges stemming from higher shares of variable renewable energy, mainly from wind and solar, and the resulting volatility of electricity prices. Furthermore, multiple energy security threats have been posed on energy infrastructure of the Baltic Sea during the past few years. This contribution analyses the expected capacity adequacy in northern European power systems in early 2030s using a multi-regional electricity market model. The study utilizes 35 years of weather data and the current prospects for generation capacity and demand. Electrification of transport is analyzed by modeling two EV deployment pathways with different shares of flexible charging for each modelled area, and hydrogen production is assumed in northern Sweden and Finland. Resilience of the power system is tested by simulating outages of the two largest nuclear power plants in the region located in Finland and Sweden, and one of the two interconnectors between Finland and Estonia. The results show that power adequacy challenges will emerge particularly with increasing inflexible demand from electric vehicles. Finland has the most severe capacity adequacy challenges of all modelled areas with 2.6 - 9.1 h of annual scarcity, on average, depending on EV flexibility, and additional outages would manifold the problems. The results imply that the estimated generation capacity will not be sufficient to meet the increasing demand by 2030.