Understanding the role of energy sector in cascading impacts of extreme precipitation on China's transport infrastructure: A novel approach integrating weather-shock input-output and network DEA

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events underscore the urgent need for a transition toward more sustainable economies. In this context, the transport sector, despite its pivotal role in enabling economic activity, is highly vulnerable to climate-related disruptions. Such vulnerability can result in cascading failures throughout supply chains. However, no study has examined the role of the energy industry in propagating these losses. Furthermore, no study has yet investigated the underlying drivers of these vulnerabilities. To address these gaps, this study proposes a novel framework that integrates a weather-shock input-output model with Network Data Envelopment Analysis. Moreover, we employ sector linkage coefficients to identify the features of vulnerable sectors and analyze the specific role of the energy industry. Empirically, we apply this framework to a case study of China, utilizing high-resolution extreme precipitation data to estimate losses. Our findings reveal substantial indirect losses (1.98 times the direct losses), with significant regional disparities in loss distribution. Sectors with high forward or backward linkages are particularly vulnerable and trigger loss cascading. During loss propagation, the energy industry plays an essential role, especially in the backward linkage of indirect losses. Additionally, the energy and transportation industries present considerable potential for efficiency improvements, given their persistent inefficiency and notable regional disparities in performance across provinces. Our framework provides policymakers and decision-makers with a robust tool to track supply chain disruptions and inefficiency sources, enabling the development of proactive strategies to mitigate substantial economic losses during extreme weather events.