Optimizing China's coal power transition pathways under integrated multi-technology mitigation decisions

Considering that China's coal power sector generates over one-third of national carbon emissions, its scientifically planned transition is crucial to meeting the 2 °C goal. Based on variations in operational status, resource conditions and economic indicators across coal-fired power plants, this study conducts a unit-level optimization for the low-carbon transition of China's coal power industry, with the objective of maximizing net present value (NPV). It helps optimize carbon reduction pathways and supports integrated decision-making on low-carbon transition technologies. Finally, the study proposes low-carbon transition pathways at different capacity levels. The results show that optimizing the carbon mitigation pathway and rationally deploying multiple low-carbon technologies can reduce transition costs by 38.73%. Additionally, if the coal power industry undertakes rapid decarbonization from 2030 to 2035, rather than waiting until later years, the transition costs will be reduced by 37.32%. Considering the application of energy efficiency technologies (EET) provides an additional 2.25-10.82% reduction in transition costs. The findings reveal regional and plant-level differences in technology adoption and timing. After 2035, east, south, and central China are expected to transition from single-technology retrofitting to a multi-technology combination of “EET + flex retrofitting (Flex) + biomass co-firing (Bio)/bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)”. In other regions, apart from the above technology combinations, the EET + Flex combination maintains advantages. As the capacity level increases, it becomes more common to couple Bio/BECCS with EET + Flex. Smaller capacity units tend to adopt Flex, EET + Flex or compulsory retirement.