Dynamic technology switchers in total factor energy performance: A modified meta-frontier NDDF approach unlocks hidden gap reduction pathways for BRI nations

This study advances meta-frontier energy efficiency analysis by addressing the restrictive assumption of static technology club allocation in conventional frameworks, which often distorts efficiency and technology gap assessments. We propose a three-stage meta-frontier non-radial directional distance function framework that incorporates technology switchers, enabling dynamic reallocation across technology clubs. Using this framework, we demonstrate analytically and empirically that ignoring technology switching conflates managerial inefficiency with technological inferiority, leading to potentially misguided policy interventions. Applying the model to 90 Belt and Road Initiative countries, we find: (1) technology clubs stratify into leaders, followers, and laggards, with 27 countries exhibiting technology switchers; (2) total factor energy performance (TFEP) exhibits significant stratification (leaders: 0.6615, followers: 0.5180, laggards: 0.5952), with switchers (e.g., those moving from followers to leaders) substantially influencing both TFEP optimization potential (enhancing self-improvement in switchers by 1.0789 and non-switchers’ by 1.1300) and technology gap dynamics (reducing self-advancement needs in switchers to 0.9497 and enhancing non-switchers’ to 1.0008); and (3) technology switchers fundamentally alter the sources of energy performance loss, indicating that conventional static models may misdiagnose policy priorities between managerial optimization and technological upgrading. These results underscore the necessity of integrating dynamic technology-switching mechanisms into energy efficiency analyses to yield more reliable and policy-relevant insights.