Scenario-based assessment of electrification pathways in district multi-energy systems

The defossilization of the energy sector is a key global priority, with the electrification of heating via heat pumps (HPs) and the increase in renewable penetration both representing promising pathways. Assessing future electrification scenarios in complex multi-energy systems is therefore essential to understand the implications of replacing conventional technologies and to outline effective transition strategies. This work employs an in-house simulation tool to evaluate the progressive electrification of district multi-energy systems. The tool incorporates a modular library of models for prosumers, and energy conversion and storage units, combined with a customizable management logic. An existing university campus in northern Italy serves as a realistic case study. Several prospective configurations are examined, featuring the stepwise substitution of natural gas boilers with HPs and an increased photovoltaic (PV) capacity. Scenarios are compared through metrics quantifying energy, economic and environmental performance, and grid interaction effects. The results show that heat electrification and PV expansion drive complementary yet partially competing effects. HPs cut carbon intensity by up to 25 % but increase electricity demand, elevating imports and grid stress. Additional PV strengthens self-sufficiency, lowers costs, and limits peaks, albeit with higher electricity exports at large penetration levels. Therefore, an effective balance between the two electrification technologies must be identified through time-varying simulation assessments. Robustness tests confirm that cumulative seasonal results are not significantly affected by uncertainties in energy demand profiles. By contrast, stress on the electricity grid is more sensitive to short-term uncertainties, system configuration, and design, as it is driven by peak power flows occurring, for instance, at the hourly time-scale.