Electrification of the chemical industry via plasma power to X – A techno economic view

Plasma-based Power-to-X technologies are promising options for electrifying chemical value chains by converting renewable electricity and carbon feedstocks into synthesis gas. This work systematically evaluates the techno-economic potential of plasma-based processes from biogas to fuels and chemicals. The analysis includes different process variants including plasma-based dry reforming, methane pyrolysis and CO2 conversion. In separate modelling, downstream conversion paths into Fischer-Tropsch fuels or methanol and renewable electricity supply systems are investigated. Results show that a biogas reforming pathway outperforms alternative routes, achieving synthesis gas costs of 840 EUR/t at a plant efficiency of about 44% for a scale of 300 MW. Electricity costs are identified as the dominant cost component, accounting for 50–60% of total synthesis gas costs, while biogas feedstock prices and capital expenditures have a secondary influence. Sensitivity analyses identify process efficiency, methane conversion, and power supply efficiency as the dominant technical cost drivers, whereas investment-related parameters such as CAPEX exhibit a comparatively minor influence on overall production costs. Downstream synthesis costs are largely governed by synthesis gas prices, contributing 70–85% of total net production costs. Fischer–Tropsch synthesis remains capital-intensive, whereas methanol synthesis benefits from lower CAPEX, making it more energetically efficient. Explicit modelling of renewable electricity supply shows that cost-optimized operation at reduced full-load hours can lower electricity prices below 20–30 EUR/MWh in favourable locations, enabling synthesis gas costs below 600 EUR/t. Overall, plasma-based biogas reforming emerges as a competitive pathway for renewable synthesis gas production, offering economic resilience and a viable route toward defossilizing chemical value chains.