Synergistic coupling of multi-market interactions between carbon, green electricity, and green certificate markets considering CCER mechanism

To achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, China establishes a multi-tiered market system to drive energy transformation. Specifically, the Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) trading offers low-cost compliance offsets for the carbon market and creates a trading pathway for green electricity's environmental value separate from green certificates. Maximizing the synergy between these three coupled markets is critical for systemic efficiency. While current studies prioritize allocation and auctioning impacts on carbon pricing, they often neglect CCER's offset mechanism and drivers like offset and supply rates. Furthermore, traditional carbon-electricity models often neglect green electricity's operating costs and environmental attributes. This study addresses these gaps by clarifying the interaction logic and system boundaries of the three coupled markets. To evaluate synergistic coupling modes following the CCER restart, this study utilizes system dynamics to model market interactions. Results show that green electricity trading facilitates carbon and green certificate market integration. Although higher renewable energy quota ratio raises green certificate prices, it ultimately lowers green electricity costs. Raising the CCER offset rate from 5% to 7.5% could increase CCER prices to 134.39 CNY/ton by 2035, consequently leading to a decrease in the installed thermal power capacity of carbon allowance buyers and sellers to 691.81 GW and 1.39 TW, respectively. The renewable capacity under the combined policy scenario is approximately 1 TW higher than in the single-policy scenario. This study establishes a rational framework for incorporating green electricity reductions into the CCER market, effectively advancing carbon mitigation and large-scale green energy consumption.