Glacier retreat through hydrological-ecological transmission reshapes the power system in the Tibetan Plateau: A case study of Qinghai and Tibet

As the “water tower of Asia”, the retreat of glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is reshaping the regional power system through hydrological processes, ecological feedback, and human activities. This study establishes a “Glacier-Hydrology-Ecology-Power” cascading analysis framework, incorporating multi-source data from 1974 to 2024. Various glacier retreat scenarios are simulated under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios to project electricity demand and photovoltaic installation paths for 2030-2060. The results show that in the short term, increased meltwater may lead to localized hydropower gains. However, as ice reserves decline, the reduced water availability during dry seasons, enhanced runoff fluctuations, and the advancement of seasonal peaks will undermine hydropower system stability. Hydrological fluctuations serve as the key intermediary layer linking glacier changes with power system responses, while ecological constraints form the main amplification channel on the demand side. The primary challenge in the regional power system has shifted from simple electricity growth to structural constraints arising from clean energy fluctuations, rising local loads, and insufficient flexibility. By 2060, regional electricity demand is expected to increase from 2300 × 108-2480 × 108 kWh to 2880 × 108-3250 × 108 kWh, and photovoltaic installations will grow from 190-220 GW to 270-340 GW. This study demonstrates that the impact of glacier retreat on the power system is not only a supply-side shock, but also a cascading effect shaped by hydrological fluctuations, ecological feedback, and energy substitution.