An optimization configuration model of integrated energy systems considering the coupling of regional near-zero carbon and economic efficiency

With the introduction of the dual-carbon targets, China's energy structure is gradually transitioning toward low-carbon and clean energy, which places higher demands on the energy sector. Integrated energy systems are expected to achieve cleaner production and terminal electrification through energy structure adjustment and the development of clean energy, thereby promoting sustainable economic and social development. However, achieving near-zero carbon emissions at the regional level still faces significant challenges. Therefore, to balance regional carbon emissions and carbon absorption, this paper proposes a regional near-zero carbon modeling framework based on the regional carbon flow structure, considering multiple carbon sources and carbon sinks, and jointly planning the configuration of integrated energy systems and the electrification transition ratio of fossil energy consumption. First, starting from the regional carbon flow structure consisting of carbon sources and sinks, mathematical models of carbon emissions, carbon absorption, and negative carbon technologies are established. Then, based on carbon reduction pathways of integrated energy systems and fossil energy electrification transition, a two-stage robust optimization model with multi-energy coupling of electricity, gas, cooling, heating, and carbon is developed. Near-zero carbon constraints at different time scales are incorporated, and the model is solved using the column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm to achieve coordinated planning of integrated energy systems and fossil energy electrification transformation. Finally, a case study is conducted for a county-level region in Gansu Province, China, to analyze the economic performance and low-carbon characteristics under different scenarios and to verify the feasibility of the proposed model in achieving regional near-zero carbon emissions. The simulation results show that when the installed capacity of new energy reaches 95.18 MW, and the share of electricity in total terminal energy consumption reaches 50%, the region can achieve near-zero carbon emissions. The proposed framework provides a practical reference for regional new energy capacity planning and energy transition under carbon neutrality goals.