Optimal design of a microgrid based on economic considerations for rural electrification using hybrid renewable energy system

Over the past decade, Pakistan has grappled with a severe power deficit, primarily due to a generating capacity of only 22,003 MW against a demand of 29,000 MW. This shortfall has led to frequent electricity outages, severely impacting both consumers and businesses, and undermining the credibility of governing bodies. In urban areas of Pakistan, power shutdowns and load shedding extend up to 14 h per day, escalating to 20 h in remote rural regions. This study explores a framework for designing a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) tailored for rural electrification in Bannu district, Pakistan. The proposed system integrates concentrated solar power (CSP), photovoltaic (PV) panels, a biogas generator (BG), and a backup storage system to ensure a stable power supply. Our findings show that the cost of energy (COE) for the HRES is $0.391/kWh, with a total net present cost (TNPC) of $155,395. Financial analyses, including projections of cash flows and evaluations of metrics such as net present value and payback period, were conducted. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo simulation was employed to assess the risks associated with the HRES, enhancing the reliability of project decisions. The results confirm the commercial viability of the hybrid system through robustness, sensitivity, and breakeven analyses, establishing its potential to provide reliable, round-the-clock electricity to the community. Additionally, the study evaluates the performance of the proposed system in comparison to current leading-edge research, suggesting a roadmap for sustainable energy transition and offering strategic guidance for decision-makers on prioritizing renewable resources and addressing both immediate and long-term challenges.