Energy security, equity, and sustainability: A multi-criteria decision analysis framework for nuclear power evaluation in emerging economies

Emerging economies face a complex energy trilemma: balancing economic growth, environmental protection, and social equity, particularly when contemplating nuclear energy adoption as part of the portfolio for clean energy transition. This paper thus introduces an ensemble of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques that addresses the unique challenges of evaluating nuclear power integration within emerging economies' energy systems. This decision-making framework applied to the Philippines' energy landscape specifically examines the potential rehabilitation of the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant alongside alternative low-carbon technologies. Both novel objective and subjective weighting approaches with TOPSIS, TODIM, and PROMETHEE evaluation techniques are used to capture diverse stakeholder perspectives and risk behaviors. While nuclear energy demonstrates superior performance in environmental impact metrics and reliability, significant policy and social acceptance challenges remain. A sensitivity analysis across three distinct transition scenarios—stability, people, and environment-centric—provides valuable insights for policymakers navigating different priorities. This study advances decision-making in low-carbon energy systems by introducing a comprehensive three-level approach that bridges technical analysis with sociopolitical realities, offering a structured pathway for clean energy transitions. Beyond the Philippine context, the novelty of the approach and its comprehensiveness could provide emerging economies with a robust tool to evaluate complex energy alternatives within their unique local contexts, effectively balancing immediate energy needs with long-term sustainability goals.