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Input quality, not statistical complexity, determines climate-adapted weather file fidelity: A causal decomposition of degree-day errors

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  • Guo, Hongshan
  • He, Kanxuan

Abstract

Climate-adapted weather files are typically produced by morphing Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) baselines with monthly climate deltas, yet the specific origins of the resulting energy demand biases have not been isolated. We present a factorial analysis separating three factors — baseline source, climate delta temporal resolution, and stochastic generation — evaluated against a deterministic reference over 2025–2100 for New York and Los Angeles under RCP8.5.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Hongshan & He, Kanxuan, 2026. "Input quality, not statistical complexity, determines climate-adapted weather file fidelity: A causal decomposition of degree-day errors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:353:y:2026:i:c:s0360544226009709
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2026.140867
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