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Assessing the potential and cost of hydrogen metallurgy for decarbonizing China's iron and steel industry: An integrated TIMES and marginal abatement cost analysis

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  • Han, Yunfei
  • Yao, Xilong
  • Liu, Lin
  • Zhang, Hangrong

Abstract

Hydrogen metallurgy is a transformative technology for achieving carbon neutrality in the iron and steel industry (ISI). Targeted research is needed to describe the role of hydrogen metallurgy in carbon reduction and to evaluate its economics. This paper presents the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model for China's ISI to analyse the contribution of hydrogen metallurgy to emission reduction, and to explore the associated changes in emission reduction costs using the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) of CO2. The results indicate that under different scenarios, the cumulative emission reduction possible by applying hydrogen metallurgy technology is 97.83-221.90 Mt by 2060. The total abatement cost of using hydrogen metallurgy technology accounts for 47.49-62.43% of the total abatement cost for the ISI. A decrease in hydrogen cost significantly impacts the abatement cost of hydrogen metallurgy. Compared to high-cost hydrogen metallurgy, the total emission reduction cost of medium-cost hydrogen metallurgy is reduced by 14.43-27.74%, and the total emission reduction cost of low-cost hydrogen metallurgy is reduced by 27.09-51.38%. By 2060, when the total emission reduction for the ISI is 1885 Mt, the carbon price may be 715.08-864.54 yuan/t. These findings will effectively support reducing emissions and developing hydrogen metallurgy in the ISI.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Yunfei & Yao, Xilong & Liu, Lin & Zhang, Hangrong, 2026. "Assessing the potential and cost of hydrogen metallurgy for decarbonizing China's iron and steel industry: An integrated TIMES and marginal abatement cost analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:352:y:2026:i:c:s036054422601011x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2026.140906
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