Uneven progress and spatiotemporal dynamics of industrial carbon unlocking in China: A perspective of the sustainable development goals

In the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), China's industrial sector must move beyond carbon-intensive path dependence and accelerate the transition toward low-carbon development. However, the progress of industrial carbon unlocking remains markedly uneven across regions, constraining coordinated regional sustainability transitions. This study constructs a comprehensive SDG-aligned evaluation system encompassing economic, technological, institutional, social, and energy dimensions. Using a combined weighting approach, we measure the industrial carbon unlocking level (ICUL) for 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021. We then employ spatial Gini coefficient decomposition, the standard deviation ellipse (SDE), and Moran's I to examine spatial inequality, distribution dynamics, and spatial autocorrelation patterns of ICUL. The findings reveal that: (1) China's ICUL increases steadily and exhibits an “east-leading, west-lagging” stepped pattern, with eastern provinces remaining dominant, central provinces growing steadily, while western and northeastern provinces consistently trail. (2) Spatial inequality in ICUL continues to widen and is most pronounced in the east, while inter-regional inequalities are the dominant source, contributing 47.94%. (3) Both national and regional ICUL display significant spatial agglomeration and persistent positive spatial correlation, characterized by the coexistence of agglomeration intensification and peripheral lock-in. (4) Regional industrial development patterns, overall development levels, and inter-regional linkages jointly shape the spatiotemporal disparities in ICUL. These findings provide empirical evidence and policy insights for promoting region-specific industrial carbon unlocking and fostering coordinated regional sustainable development.