Quota allocation of provincial non-hydro renewable energy power in China: A supply-demand match allocation framework integrating generation-side potential and consumption-side resilience

To address the mismatch between production capacity and consumption demand for non-hydro renewable energy (NHRE) electricity across provinces in China, based on the supply-demand match principle, this study proposes a quota allocation framework that integrates generation-side potential and consumption-side resilience. The generation side establishes an allocation model that maximizes the proportion of renewable energy (RE) in national power generation, aiming to explore the improvement potential of RE power generation to meet existing energy policy requirements. The consumption side allocates consumption quotas by constructing a comprehensive resilience index for provincial systems responding to mandatory pressures and potential risks under the Renewable Portfolio Standards policy (CRI-RPS). Based on the framework, this study proposes the provincial NHRE electricity production and consumption plans for 2026. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The planned national NHRE power generation and its proportion have been increased to 2613.375 billion kWh and 23.57% by exploring its improvement potential. Inner Mongolia and Hebei have the highest planned generation, while Qinghai has the highest planned proportion. (2) The national CRI-RPS is at a moderate level, with strong technological and energy resilience in addressing RPS policy pressures and risks. Provinces with high CRI-RPS bear the highest consumption quotas, while those with low CRI-RPS shoulder the lowest quotas. (3) To achieve a match of NHRE power supply and demand across provinces, 731.974 billion kWh of electricity needs to be transmitted between provinces, accounting for 28.01%. Finally, the study proposes policy recommendations to promote the development and effective consumption of NHRE power.